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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 7, 2024 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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businesses >> wonder if it's unique to disney, because booking was pretty strong. lyft was strong. so, maybe people not going as far as orlando, but still going out. >> yeah, premium tier for lyft, i thought, was interesting, too. speaks to this bifurcation in the consumer that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight a disney downer. the stock seeing its worst day since 2022 after warning that two major pillars of its business are under pressure. the news fully erasing three months worth of gains. can the entertainment giant get its magic back or should investors just let it go plus, the appleof our eye. the tech giant unveiling a new slate of ipads this afternoon, but it's the stock chart that caught the attention of our traders. is the company heading toward new records? we'll debate that. plus, tim is flexing his blicep after lyft's earnings
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starbucks still struggling, down 18% since earnings last week and why someone not naming names, thinks now may be the perfect time to short tesla. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with the 9.5% drop in disney after earnings this morning. even as the entertainment giant streaming business gets closer to profitability, a slight revenue miss lower than expected guidance weighing on the stock it had been the best performing dow component this year up until today's plunge it's now dropped to number four. leadership alluding to trouble in two tent poles of disney's business first, the cfo warning about the consumer, saying that while travel and demand still appear healthy, the company seeing, quote, some evidence of a global moderation from peak post-covid travel then, there was ceo bob iger addressing future bumps in the road to streaming, admitting the
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path to profitability may not be linear disney expects to turn a profit in fiscal q-4. so, with challenges facing two of the most critical parts of disney's media empire, is this a sign the magic has left the kingdom? guy? >> you got some joke, what was it, a frozen thing >> let it go that's what elsa sings signature song. >> the jokes around here are funny and clever >> and you giggled you are a participant and a viewer, as well. the magic was never really back. they never really addressed the core issues that they were having, and we said it last night, or a week or so ago, that the two quarters of cost-cutting their way to profitability, they no longer would get a pass and it's going to be very hard to build upon the gains that the stock sea. and it went to levels i thought. five times normal volume, that's a good sign, but there's probably more downside here. i don't think you're looking for a place to sell it you're trying to figure out, what's the right level
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again, it's probably another 6%, 7%, but we're not that far away. >> heavy volume, meaning good sign -- >> i believe it's a good sign. >> karen >> i can't help but wonder, the timing of this release relative to the proxy fight, right? they had such a strong quarter going into the proxy fight and now that it's over, not such a strong quarter so, i don't know, i find that -- i mean, maybe that's me being overly conspiracy theorist or something. i find it a little --i don't know i'm surprised actually we haven't heard from nelson peltz. never shy, right so, i don't know, i doubt he's coming back to do anything aggressive, there's nothing to do the meeting is over. but it's just sort of interesting to me. then we just get back to, all right, well, what is the right price for this company, right? clearly, they have some issues, but they obviously have three tremendous businesses, sometimes they don't all operate on all cylinders at all times i think the valuation here is okay, it's not great
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i feel like there could be some more downside here >> if you are a believer that the consumer is going to continue to be increasingly strained as the year progresses, that's not a great thing 52% of its operating profit is experiences, which is mostly theme park >> yeah, i don't think we've priced that into disney. i don't think we've priced a slower consumer. i don't think we've priced cyclicality in essentially the media business overall i think what i hear guy and karen saying is that this is -- as much about a tough comp as, you know, you can talk about whether the proxy fight was the reason to throw a lot of stuff in there that last quarter really had something in it for everybody. and that's part of what i think is hurting the stock right now i think the content costs came in, you know, it was a loss, a big loss on content. i think that was a big deal. i think that was something people didn't expect studio's been slower the summer box office is not expected to be very strong and i think they came out of a gangbusters period in terms of parks that is going to be tough to duplicate so, i just think that the streaming losses dynamic is
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still the most important part of the story, and while we got good news over the last two quarters and last quarter again, we were given this bright light at the end of the tunnel, and i just think that that's the issue here i think it's an opportunity for the stock. i think i've always heard other people say that. >> is it an opportunity, dan, or is that bright light dimmed for the foreseeable feature? >> probably not. i mean, i think guy kind of highlighted some of the levels there, that gap from last quarter is going to get filled in, it's on its way to doing that, and just listening to the guys and gals talk about how they perceive the quarter and the guidance, you can go back a quarter, when the stock broke out to new 52-week highs and i say to yourself, that was very company and stock specific, why that stock rallied that way. now, if you look at this quarter, and this guidance, and what tim just said, difficult comps, right and now you can extrapolate it a little bit more to the consumer, right? and basically the environment that they are starting to see. so, unless they are basically trying to blame this poor
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performance after such a great quarter that had a lot more to do with what they were doing on the cost side and streaming, so, three months out, to me, that's not a great story. then, i want to move it out to the consumer discretionary look at a home depot we're going to get a lot of retail earnings over the next couple of weeks. that stock does not act particularly well. it's down 15% from its recent highs here, and i think if you want to start piecing some of this stuff together on the consumer front, it's probably setting up for a more challenging second half, i think, for a lot of these consumer discretionary companies. >> i just want to add one more thing. this was results for the quarter ending march 30th, right the annual meeting was april 2nd or so? they had to have some sense of how this current quarter was going. >> you would think right. >> yeah, i don't know. just adding that to the -- a little odd >> again, i think -- guy loves to play this game and we don't play games without melissa's
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consent. >> we play a lot of them >> you're about to do it, though >> give you permission >> the game you like to play, with consent, because you don't act on your own, is that, if you told me the news, could i tell what you the stock price was going to do? and if you told me that disney, who has a plus 25% year over year eps growth, guides up on the year, and shows, you know, tells you that their linear business sucks, we knew that like -- sorry for that, but it, you know, i look at the softer linear biz and i know what's going on with linear tv. the most important thing here is streaming and dtc, and those numbers were not terrible. >> i guess, you know, earnings are sort of in the eye of the beholder, right? when i looked at it this morning, i thought, oh, consumer looks soft, consumer, you depend on consumer for most of your business when it comes to the theme parks, and -- >> and streaming also. >> and streaming, too. and then also streaming is going to be a winding path to profitability.
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so, you've got the cash generator under pressure you have the growth business with an uncertain path and what do you have? a stock that's down 10%. >> karen -- you are spot-on with that, but maybe they thought this was a pretty benign quarter and you weren't going to get the move eps beat, revenue, slight miss subscription numbers, not great, but not a disaster they probably thought, given the way the stock had been trading, this was not going to happen, which, might be one of the reasons they didn't address it with that said, they show know it's their business to know. so, i think a lot of it was given a run that the stock had, a lot of it was effected the netflix quarter by itself was very good. it wasn't the quarter that scared everybody at netflix, it was all the things they said subsequent to the quarter. so, when you compare those two things, i think it makes a little sense but i do think there's a level to buy it. and the level is that gap that was created back in february and if i'm not mistaken, comes right in around $99, which is what we said earlier in the show >> we were talking about this before the show, we said, disney earnings don't happen in a vacuum we're hearing the caution
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comments about the consumer at disney specifically not in a vac s uum, we heard it from starbucks, nike, wide swath of consumers are looking at how they spend money, reducing their ticket sizes, and that's a worry. >> i think it's an interesting, you know, look at the horizon and see some of the most iconing companies in america who in the past have been very defensive in some of these periods. and if you think about the consumer really, for a lot of disney, absolutely for starbucks, you know, this is a case for nike, i mean, this is not necessarily the low end consumer this is a consumer that typically has discretionary income and we're hearing that there's still a lot of d discretionary income so, that's fascinating i think what we have heard from lower end continues to be the story, and this is -- this is really -- isn't this the conversation we thought weer with going to have a year ago when we really thought that the economy was going to be facing
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significant headwinds in '24 it's now '24, it's all playing out a lot slower, and it gets to this place where, are the multiple on the s&p, which is 21 forward, does it deserve it in this backdrop? >> so, the consumer's in the spotlight, dan, questions around the consumer, we have nvidia on deck got a lot ahead here in terms of a potential headwind, tape bombs, whatever you want to call it for the markets in the next couple of weeks. >> yeah, you know, there's a certain sense of irony that, you know, all this inflation is likely the thing that causes the slowdown, right? so, we know that companies have been able to pass through a lot of those increased costs that they're facing those input costs, but now it was seem to feel like the long and variable lags that we heard so much about with this higher rate environment to kind of combat the inflation might be the very thing that slows us down and so, like, to me, i just feel like you got to listen to each one of these conference calls and hear what the companies have
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to say and you have to attach the dots here and i feel like now that we're through the bulk of s&p 500 earnings, to your point about nvidia, so much of this market, at least the stock market, in my opinion, is relying on this generative a.i. trade. google, amazon, good results meta got hit because of the spending there people are optimistic about what apple might do, so, it goes back to some of the larger components of the s&p 500, and now, here we are. we we have this date, it's may 22nd we did this in february copping o coming out of earnings season. and if the data, the economic data just stays where it is, it feels like the entire rally that we have year to date is going to be predicated on investors perceive the guidance from nvidia. let's bring in julia boorstin for more color on disney's quarter i'm just curious, when you listened to the conference call, these -- these comments that sort of put the markets into -- not the markets, but the stock
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into a tail spin seemed a little bit even off the cuff, not totally serious, they were sort of mentioned, only one followup question regarding the consumer and the return to post-covid spending when it comes to the theme parks. the comment about the profitability on streaming not being linear, that didn't seem too surprising, either what was your take on how that was handled? >> yeah, i mean, look. i think that disney has been very clear they expect to hit full streaming profitability by the end of their fiscal year that means the entertainment, which is disney+ and hulu division, and also espn+ it was a positive surprise that they hit streaming profitability with $47 million in revenue for the entertainment piece of that, which is hulu and disney+. they did say that they're going to drop out of profitability in this next quarter, the fiscal third quarter, before returning to full-year profitability in q-4. so, despite the upside surprise this quarter, they acknowledge the lumpiness, and it was really a warning about q-3.
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i think it's notable that there was also warning about the fiscal third quarter when it came to the parks also that they expect flat operating income in the fiscal third quarter. so, you have these warnings about the fiscal third quarter and then the reassurance, in this case, when it came to the parks, from cfo hugh johnson that you're going to have a rebound in terms of profitability in the fiscal fourth quarter what this is really about here is lumpiness, and the fact that we're no longer in this post-pandemic, everyone has all this pent-up demand for the theme parks phase. it's now a little bit less even. and the same thing holds true for the streaming business they're on this path to profitability. they're going to hit their targets, but it's not going to be sort of all -- unfettered growth one thing i think is really, really important to hit in the streaming business here is that bob iger overtly praised netflix. they pointed out, he pointed out how long netflix has been at this, he said, netflix has had a lot of success with its kr
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crackdown on password sharing. he talked about doing the same and i think he sees the opportunity here to follow in netflix's footsteps. it's not often that you hear a ceo praising a rival like that, but i think it's a proof of concept for him of that same kind of approach is going to work for disney+ >> is there any aspect of seasonality about the fiscal third quarter, julie, i'm just curious, since both of those businesses are going to see softness in that specific quarter. >> yeah, i mean, look. the fiscal third quarter is the spring, and then the fiscal fourth quarter is sort of the most important summer quarter, where you get a lot of benefit from the theme parks, and also in terms of the box office and i think they have some films they expect to be big hits, including a "deadpool. sequel also in terms of comparisons, as well, but what's so interesting for me, having seen iger sort of really transform the company, is that he really laid out the plan
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to address a lot of concerns raised by nelson peltz, but to kind of accelerate things he probably would have done anyways, and now, he's put all these changes into place, whether it's getting to profitability withstreaming an launching a joint venture around sports streaming and having this espn flagship streaming service launched a year from now, but it takes awhile for these changes to actually come to tfruition, and i think we're in in the in between period right now >> julie, it's tim do you get the sense that disney's average revenue per user, or arpu, is significantly below netflix, and that's an issue in they're less profitprof profitable, at least in terms of what their core subscriber is paying i almost get that sense. we see all these numbers, but when you break it down, they are bringing in, you know, disney+ is bringing in, i don't know, seven bucks a head
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espn+ is six bucks a head and change any thoughts on that >> well, i think what's really interesting, tim, is you're alluding to the fact that disney has all the different services they is disney+, hulu, espn+ combined, that's a competitor to netflix. one other thing that iger teased to during this call is the fact they're going to start introducing espn content within your disney+ app and they want to sort of introduce those subscribers to the espn+ content with the idea then it will be easier to sell to them this additional subscription of the flagship espn product if people want to subscribe to that outside of a traditional tv bundle. so, iger is increasingly thinking about disney+ as a cohesive streaming platform for all of their content, and the changes they made to really incorporate hulu into that are part of it >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin on disney and just quickly, it's netflix's
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world, i guess, still, even according to bob iger. >> no question again, the netflix -- and put up a netflix chart. look at the little stealth rally netflix had since that cascade down to 540 or so. it's come back almost the entire move which is a pretty good thing and listen, i'm going to be watching the ranger game tonight, in case you care. there will be cable shows -- >> she scares. >> not really. i don't. >> you care. >> she just -- she doesn't want to show her emotion. i don't blame her. >> poker player. but there will be shows that lead about, you know, go woke, go broke, one of the largest drawdowns in the history of disney stock, and so, disney -- i'm not interested in either side, but they've become a bit of a political football, as well that obviously does not help them in this environment. coming up, earnings season rolls on we have afterhours action to bring you. rivian, lyft, ea, all on the move the details of the quarters next. plus, starbucks still dripping lower shares down more than 18%. that was a burst of land eughte tim. why there doesn't seem to be any
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bounce in this brew, when "fast money" returns this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc, e untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is.
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welcome back to "fast money. we have a news alert out of the uk a nationwide issue sadia has all the details. >> reporter: we don't know what has caused this issue, but it's causing massive disruption at the border force, and we've had videos coming into us from passengers who say some of them have had to wait three hours already, lengthy lines at some of the airports in the uk. the issue, home office has confirmed to us, is with the e-gate these are the automated gates that people use when they're arriving in the uk so, this is for british passport holders, but travelers from the eu and other countries like america. and this comes just two weeks after staff at border force held a four-day strike here at heathrow airport, causing massive disruption then. and under a year since the last time that we had problems with the e-gate and that time, officers had to
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be deployed to check passports by hand, so, those gates were all not in use, and that was for an entire almost 24 hours, it p took for the lines to resolve that time. so, again, this time, passengers facing lengthy lines and no signs of when this might get resolved >> sadia, thank you. we'll keep you posted there. meantime, lyft shares higher after earnings, but well off their best levels of the session. better than expected earnings, a revenue jump of 28% from a year ago. the conference call is under way right now. d deirdre bosa has the latest. >> hey, mel. they are just getting to the first question from the analysts on the call, but so far, investors pleased with the results that beat on the top and bottom line, and had a better than expected second quarter outlook. the ceo kicked off the call, he talked a lot about his strategy of customers and driving growth.
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it was the second-straight quarter they generated free cash flow still no timeline and gap profitability, but it's now expecting at least 70% of adjusted ebitda to convert to free cash flow for the full year 2024 i spoke to david richard just ahead of the results, and i asked him if he is seeing any signs of softness in the lyft consumer, he said, no. and in fact, looking at the ride mix, he says that premium mode is actually growing faster than the average, and this past quarter, they got an eclipse and an event bump in bookings. that helping the results lastly, mel, lyft's quarter, we got uber tomorrow morning, so, may raise the stakes for its larger rival though, of course, uber has the food delivery business, and that has been a more competitive space as of late, with dash, with instacart, even amazon in the bmix there. >> all right, thank you. deirdre bosa covering lyft for us tonight it's the l in tim's blicep, of course >> very generous >> it really is.
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>> slip in an l when i've been so critical of karen not playing the game fair enough. i think this continues to be a story of normalization i think it's a story, if you look at the gross bookings, they came in, 4.05, i think, versus 3.96 is where the street was if you look at the adjust ed ebb that, this is a story of improved profitability the backdrop for lyft was so much more in terms of the headwinds of covid were things that hit lyft significantly harder than they did uber for all the obvious reasons, because they are not as diversified and they are not a super app i think the story continues to get better i think management has still a long way to go with the investment community in terms of credibility, in terms of their ability to predict their numbers and deliver on them. >> dan, morgan stanley said that it likes the fact that uber is multiplatform and trades at a better multiple for adjusted growth than lyft or instacart.
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>> well, it's interesting, mel you know, uber, their profitability is really inflecting right now expected gap eps growth of, like, 50% a year for the next couple years the problem right there is the sales growth expect to be mid teens, but when i look at an uber and i say to myself, they're reporting tomorrow morning, if they can get their gross margins moving back towards those pre-covid levels above 50%, this stock could look pretty cheap. you saw the deal that they just cut with instacart today for delivery, they have about 25% market share doordash has about 70% or so so, to me, i mean, the ceo of uber seems to be doing all of the right things in this post-covid world, but i'm kind of with tim in a way i think lyft has a lot of optionality, and just so you know, the l, whatever my acronym was last year, it was in there i just didn't stick with it this year, so, good on you, tim, with the blicep >> yeah, not going to be a
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zebral >> can i ask tim a question? >> of course, you're karen finerman >> would you change it to bubucep for uber >> bucep sounds silly. blicep sounds so unsilly, right? no, i think, to me, lyft is the story where they have significant ground to gain it's more expensive, but i think normalization of their business is to come there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next the pour over problems continue, as the star bbucks stc drip doesn't seem to be getting better. plus, a.i. overhyped one legendary investor is cutting down on nvidia has the semi surge come too far? and what could a pull-back mean for the rest of the market you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site
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in times square. we're back right after this.
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welcome back an earnings alert on dutch
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brothers surging after posting a profit and a beat on revenues meantime, starbucks still sinking after its earnings last week shares down over 18% since that report and seemingly unable to catch any bounce-back amid the pull-back here the company seeing slumping sales, boycotts from pro-palestinian supporters, even harsh criticism from former ceo howard schultz we asked, is the stock so bad it's good -- so far, not too many people think so guy, you said at some point soon -- you think still sometime soon >> i'm looking at it now, i mean, you go back to may of 2022, we're right there, but you noh know, it shows no signs of bouncing this isn't just a recent development, this is a stock that now has vastly underperformed for basically the last 3, 3 1/2 years, so, it's going to find a level. unfortunately, again, we've said it for awhile, i don't think it's here. valuation, which was never a concern, becomes a concern and listen to joe -- what's that
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show with brian sullivan >> "last call. >> "last call," yeah >> he does a nice job. >> joe went sort of scorched earth on this new ceo and basically read him the riot act, so, they got some problems without question not least of which the fact they sell very expensive things that have strapped consumers, no longer really looking to buy >> back to our conversation in the a-block a little bit suffering similar problems to nike, there's so much other competition from smaller rivals. we mentioned dutch brothers for a reason because they are a smaller rival. you walk down the stretch in new york city, there's four other smaller coffee chains or coffee stores where you can buy coffee that costs the same, more, probably less. >> and might be better, maybe not. >> exactly >> but they are out there and they're a place to go instead of starbucks. >> right the thing that was sort of odd to me was, why did howard schultz feel like he needed to make that letter public? i don't know what that does. certainly serves to undermine the ceo, right >> which he's done before.
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>> which he's done before. maybe that's not his intention if it's not, why do you need to do that publicly why don't you do it privately? and so, that was sort of difficult. would you rather buy it up meaningfully, when things are more on track, than try to pick the bottom here? >> yeah. >> the issues are that we now don't really know what fiscal '25 eps is going to look like. and this is a management team that you have confidence to be able to deliver that to you? they've been wrong from the minute they took over, which is about a year ago so, i think that's very much an issue. i think whether, you know, howard schultz is intentionally undermining management, to give himself a ride back into the helm for the third time, i don't know, but it gets back to then what's the multiple you want to pay on this? because if you have some visibility, if you took eps multiple for '25 that you had before this announcement, this stock is trading 15 1/2 times that 25 multiple that's very cheap. >> if he does come back in, you have to wonder if there's truly
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severe risk to this stock, because it seems like howard schultz looks like the only one who can run this well. >> which is crazy. >> it's the fourth time he's going to come back and he has not been able to train his successor? >> he's picked bad management teams. >> or he can't or it doesn't work coming up, more action to bring you. shares of reddit, rivian, ea, wynn, all on the move. the numbers out of the reports next. plus, has the a.i. surge come too far too fast in our markets? what one billionaire investor has to say about the sector, and what it could mean for your money. ilwh "ston" ey returns.sor, i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors
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who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com (vo) what does it mean to be rich? to helping people achieve their financial goals. maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic.
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing mixed with the dow notching its fifth day of gains. its longest winning streak since december the s&p with a small gain, and the nasdaq lower by a tenth of a percent, snapping its own three-day winning streak reddit jumping after its first earnings report since going public. shares of ea lower after a revenue miss. wynn is higher after beating on the top and bottom lines. meantime, billionaire investor stanley druckenmiller
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comparing a.i. to the internet in 1995. he said he is as bullish as he's ever been, but diving into these stocks could come at a near-term price. >> a.i. could rival the internet, as we go through all the capital spending we need to do the payoff, while it's inc incrementally coming in by the day, the big payoff might be four to five years from now, so, a.i. might be a little overhyped now, but underhyped long-term. >> stewart kaiser is getting ready for another key earnings period for a.i he's citi's head of equity trading strategies good to see you. we were joking, but we actually posed the question last night, i posed the question to these guys what is more important, rates and the direction of rates, or nvidia's report on may 22nd? so, what -- what's your answer >> well, markets are pricing them about the same. if you look at s&p 500 earnings, the nvidia earnings day is
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priced as big of an event as cpi. i think for equities, nvidia might be a little more important at this point, just to kind of confirm the earnings trend we've seen with rates, to me, it's about rate of change if you put ten-year rate at 4.75% and got pinned there, i think equities can do fine if you had a big miss on nvidia earnings, that kind of eats away at that momentum trade and more risk for the market. >> i think it's rates, but that's what makes, as they say was that flush we just saw in nvidia a couple weeks ago, got down to $735, $740, was that it? or -- you still anticipate -- not playing stock market, but a lot of volatility in this single stock? >> look, it's priced forabout 10% move on earnings i think to your point, and it kind of speaks to earnings season early earning season, you had the netflix report, the asml report, the stocks were down, and that got our attention if those stocks put up okayish numbers and are down double digits, what could the rest of
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the earnings season look like? big tech delivered and stabilized, but it puts into context how important nvidia is. it's being priced as a macro risk, not a single stock risk. and based on how the other stocks react to earnings, it's incredibly important >> if you look at megacap tech in the form of at least the nasdaq 100, relative to the s&p, it looks like it made a high in mid january, actually, it really made a high back in july and kind of gone sideways. there's a bit of a down trend. looking for leadership that has come from the megacap tech stocks, is that concerning to you? and semis have kind of held in they have kind of -- they've really, they've at least held serve, and as we've said, nvidia is critical, but nasdaq 100 underperforming the s&p from january in a down channel, and that concerns, i think, leadership >> yeah, look, the leadership has gotten a little more fragmented this year the mag seven was 70% of market cap gains last year, right now, it's probably in the 40%, 50% range. within that mag seven, you have tesla not performing, meta, so, even with that seven, you've had
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lower correlation. so, without a doubt, it's in focus. as stan was talking about with semis, and you mentioned, semis is key here, because you don't know where thea.i. revenues ar going to end up getting distributed and over what time period people are investing in the pipes, which is semis and power generation so, for the near term, those stocks that are probably more important. we're seeing a lot more focus in a.i.-focused software, for instance, as potentially kind of that next leg. so, to your point on semis and qs, once valuation gets to a certain level, people start looking for what we would call a.i. a.i.-asay gent i think for that ajay essential si to work, nvidia has to keep working. that glif gives you the bravery take the extra step. >> i don't want to quibble with you, but let's say nvidia misses because they just can't produce enough so, the demand is still there, but you know, the revenue's a little light for whatever reason, not that they are not
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having the command t they have more demand than they can fill >> i think that's your best case miss we missed because there's too much demand. but taiwan semi were having trouble kind of meeting demand, as well, so, you know, there's talk of nvidia's next gen chip comes out later this year, what does that do to the demand profile over the balance of the year so, there is a certain case where they might miss numbers but have really good reasons for it i think the initial reaction is going to be a little bit risk-off, just because you're adding uncertainty big picture, if they miss because they can't keep up with demand, that is much better than the alternative. >> stewart, thank you for coming by dan, your thoughts >> yeah, you know, listen, the a.i.-adjacent software is not trading well this year yo
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adobe, palantir, there's a whole host of them that are down a lot. i'm not sure that holds a lot of water. if anything, that makes me nervous that investors are not seeing the bright spot the other thing i'd say about stan's comments, interesting split screen between him and what eric schmidt had to say to andrew rosser sorkin. you had wall street cynical and silicon valley very optimistic i think we meet in the middle, because the level of euphoria that's coming out of silicon valley about this is being met with skepticism on wall street i think that's why nvidia's guidance is so important consensus is already calling for up 80% earnings and sales growth the stock's up more than that. so, to karen's point, i don't care, if they can't guide up, it's not a demand issue, it's a supply issue, the stock is still going down and probably causes a sort of downdraft in megacap tech that we saw from late july last year to late october. coming up, rivian down about 4% afterhours on their latest
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report the numbers and the latest from the call, next plus, apple unveiling two new ipads. one of our traders says the chart might be even more interesting than this big reveal why he's so intrigued, right after this
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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on rivian the ev maker dropping on q-1 results. ful phil lebeau has the latest >> i'm listening to the call, melissa, and it's one of the quarters where you go -- eh. it's okay. it's not terrible. the sky is not falling but there's not a whole lot here if you are a rivian bull let's go through the numbers and, this might explain a little bit why the stock is under some pressure a loss of $1.48. the revenue was better than expected, coming in at 1.2 billion. the street was expecting 1.16 billion. but the numbers within the numbers. operating expenses greater than they were in the first quarter of last year at $957 million operating cash flow, negative $1.44 billion. the loss per vehicle, just under
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$39,000. so, when you look at their annual deliveries, is there any change in guidance no because their production still comes out, they don't give delivery guidance, they gave production guidance and reaffirmed 57,000 vehicles will be built this year capex guidance does come down by $550 million, to $1.2 billion. they are forecasting a modest gross profit in the fourth quarter. they are affirming the guidance that's been out there, that they expect to do that by the fourth quarter. that's not enough for some people that look at the fact they still expect to lose $2.7 billion this year. one other note from the call the cfo was talking about what tailwinds are there, that they feel confident about, and they talked about the fact that they're variable costs should be coming down in the second half of this year do to commodity pressures easing we're going to be talking to the ceo of rivian tomorrow on "squawk box. you don't want to miss it. and melissa, our friend adam jonas asked r.j. about the rumor
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regarding apple and rivian having a partnership -- as you would expect, r.j. said, we don't comment on rumors. >> you can try again tomorrow, though, phil thank you. >> you bet >> phil lebeau it is just crazy to think that this company loses more than $38,000 per vehicle it sells, right? it's mind blowing. >> put a long-term chart -- i remember when the stock was public and the conversations we had about it, the absurdity of the valuation, and people got mad at us. it's -- their cash on the balance sheet is where the stock is trading >> every day there's less. >> every car they sell >> $39,000 loss per car. that's hard to do. >> and i think thank god they didn't make more cars. >> so, the lifeline is apple, i guess. otherwise, there's no compelling to own the stock, i don't think. let's stick with the ev space and dan says recent action in tesla may be creating an opportunity to short the stock so, dan, how are you playing this one >> yeah, and let's be clear,
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mel, i wouldn't short this with your money, but there's probably ways to do it in the options market i'm looking at put calendars and i'm really trying to target the july q-2 delivery date that will be the first week in july think back to about a month ago, when the company released their q-1 deliveries the stock gapped and kept on going lower, made a new 52-week low. when we got around to the earnings event, it wasn't as bad as people feared, but the stock had already cratered so, you got that big rally then you got elon's trip over to china, the fugazi announcement about self-driving over there, robotics pixie dust, a.i., i infrastructure spend, all of that stuff, and the stock had a 40% rally off of those lows. well, here we are, this week, the china data -- delivery data in april is horrible that's what the stock was down here overall, deliveries were down 8.5% q-1 they are likely down more in q-2. look at that negative cash flow
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they had in q-1. if we have negative deliveries again quarter over quarter, think about what cash flow is going to look like there nhtsa is in their face about self-driving i could go on and on i just think that sets up for a good trading opportunity for those that think that q-2 is going to be worse than q-1, and if the stock market is a discounting mechanism, you want to get in front of this, because i think the stock breaks the lows of $138 and could be on its way to 100 bucks this summer we'll keep talking about it. >> dan, if you are so dour on tesla, why did you put rivian in zebra, or do you wish you could take out and it would be zeba? >> i wish i could take out you know, listen, i hate to see this, i think these are dumb games we play. i know we have some fun with it. what i try to do when i play this game, i try to find the most bombed out, worst sentiment names where you can get a lot of
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leverage that's how you win your silly game there, mel. >> by the way, sandy is our senior executive producer, man in charge, talking directly -- break it down. >> i guess i'm the only one that plays it >> i love the game >> and our viewers love the game >> do they >> i'm sure they do. >> they follow it, they send us updates, i mean -- it's a good time >> what is not to love. coming up, all the headlines out of apple's latest ipad event. a number of new products being announced, but something else that caught one of our trader's eyes more on that next. and, here's a sneak peek of the cramer cam jim is chatting with the ceo of palo alto networks that'somg cinup on "mad money." meantime, more "fast money" in two.
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welcome back to "fast money. apple unveiling new ipads today for the first time since 2022. the latest air model and new ipad pro will feature apple's in-house m-2 and m-4 chips a company exec saying the chips give the devices incredible a.i. capabilities while all of the flashy tech has investors buzzing, we have our eyes on the chart. the stock has been a notable laggard this year, but up smartly in the past month. is it ready to bounce? guy, this is the chart that you
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were watching? >> i'm not a hater i'm not. you had the gap higher open on very significant volume the other day. on what i thought was -- and it's just me, i thought it was -- it was an okay quarter. i didn't see anything great. it was better than it was expected people were expecting really bad, they got just bad >> oh, and a buy-back. >> 110 -- that's what, to me, that was most of it. people say, no, that was part of it -- i'm not in that camp nothing's really changed i think it's 4 four out of the last five quarters of negative growth valuation is still stretched, but that gap higher open creates a potential for a gap lower open, similar to what we saw in facebook, so, keep your eyes open open below 182 and technically doesn't look all that good >> that's what you want going into wwdc. >> i don't go to wwdc. there's no way -- >> going into this event >> sorry >> where the highly anticipated a.i. announcement is going to be made, tim. >> yeah, look. i would never count apple out,
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especially with that install base i look at a chart and i see underperformance to the s&p even with the great number ors that great buy-back, of almost 18% from december 8th. i mean, it's been a disaster relative to the s&p. i don't know if that's not going to continue. up next, final trades. maybe it's time for your home to start taking care of you? if you're 62 or older and own your home, a reverse mortgage can put more money in your pocket by eliminating your monthly mortgage payments, paying off higher-interest credit cards, and covering medical costs. you paid down the mortgage, invested in your home. i guess, you could say, your home owes you. just eliminating the mortgage payment freed up a lot of cash for us. the fact that we're still in this home, means so much.
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final trade. dan? >> yeah, i think tesla's recent bounce sets up a really interesting opportunity in the options market to make a bearish bet into the q-2 deliveries in
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early july >> tim >> yeah, fun show tonight. utilities. we talk about power adjacency. >> karen >> yes citibank letter c >> happy day after birthday to tim. ranger hockey tonight. oih. >> thank you for watching are w thanks for watching. mad money, starts right now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always work in summer. i promise to help you find it. mad money, starts now. hey, i'm cramer. my job is to make you a little money. my job is not just educate, but to teach you. call me at one 807 three cbc. get this, we are at a very
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