interesting name steph says it's golf related. >> it is i have two. >> does it work if your golf ball is in the trees [ laughter ] >> we'll discuss and see how we finish out today i'll see you at 3:00 ♪ we will see you then, scott. thank you so much. i'm back i'm kelly evans. here's "the exchange." while i went from four kids to phi five, the fed went from seven to maybe zero rate cuts this year one of our guests still sees as many as three and maybe as soon as july. we are going to debate it. disney nearly turned a profit on streaming, but revenue

down for a fourth straight quarter and the stock down 10% we'll talk to brian grazer plus, ipads, keyboards, maybe cars we'll look at the trades from here. and dow being hurt by disney, wouldn't it? >> i'm here. i want to wish you a welcome back, because we have missed you. to her point about specifically what's going on with that trade for the dow, if you look at disney shares, but for disney we would be up about 100 points on the dow. we're currently up about 5 the s&p 500 is trying to get back to that 5200 level.

solidly above the 50-day average price on a rolling basis at these levels for the s&p we're about 1.5% away from record highs and 5% away from the lows we saw back in april. that's a pretty strong move. the nasdaq up about .25% generally speaking over the shorter term, we've seen yields drifting lower the two-year note yield is at 4.81%. the ten-year at 4.43%. crude prices up .5%. gold trades off a little bit and bitcoin sits at 63,574 check out some of these names. amazon is one that we want to focus on because amazon among the consumer names, royal

caribbean, colgate and proctor and gamble keep it on amazon especially a lot of influence on markets. billionaire investors criticizing fed chair powell for a premature pivot in december when he signalled more aggressive rate cuts here's what he said on squawk box this morning. >> it seemed to me the fed was in a perfect position, inflation was coming down, financial conditions were tightening to some extent, i feel like they fumbled on the 5 yard line with the game on the line. >> a lot of questions about why, many reasons they might be thinking about a pivot here. let's debate it now.

steve, kick things off for us. we know drug - do you think the fed is trying to help them out >> let me preface this by saying i think stan is one of the smartest guys out there. i disagree a little bit because there's the supposition in his comment that the inflation we saw at the beginning of this year was caused by the loosening of financial conditions at the end of last year i think there may have been a piece of that, but things like motor vehicle insurance was a catchup of the motor vehicle insurance to the cost in the rise of automobiles by a

tremendous amount. there may be inflation to come from the loosening of financial conditions i'm just not sure what we've seen is from that. i'm not sure i agree with the underlying premise of stan's analysis. >> it is surprising that the economy is doing what it is. it's holding up. i think you'd think there's probably more inflationary pressure than you might have thought if we all were already going sideways. >> we're living in a post pandemic world we're going to get surprised a great deal of the time i think we've had great disinflation success over the last year. that's unambiguous but as steve said, we still have the residual fumes of the pandemic that's not directly related to what happens to financial conditions in realtime so i actually agree with stan that i think that the fed has become a little bit too

transparent, too much like a desk economist, if you will, in constant commentary. so i'd agree with him on that. but i don't think chair powell made a material mistake at all back in december with the rhetorical pivot it was time for him to do that could he have done it a little bit more suddenly? yeah, but it was important for him to do that. >> part of what paul's talking about is he was saying maybe we need to get rid of forward guidance i don't think if you think that's friend or foe of the fed's or if that matters much right now. should they be talking about cuts here or not >> forward guidance was a tool that was constructed when we were at the zero lower down to try and flatten the curve and find ways to deal with being at the effective lower bound, just

like asset purchases were. from all accounts, when we moved substantially away from the lower bound, we were going to a abandon those tools. because the majority of easing was executed through the balance sheet that they should not be passive with respect to unwinding the balance sheet. they should have used the opportunity to sell mortgages outright they should still be doing that. they shouldn't be using forward guidance anymore they should have only relied on the rate policy. that would have prevented the deepest inversion u-curve since the volker area. i would agree that this is a tool that shouldn't be utilized right now. >> so where are you on rate cuts, though necessary, not necessary >> i think we're going to get

the rate cuts. you started out talking about why did this whole pivot occur the call that we had gone to 5% on tens and 2.5% on ten-year real rates by late october, the treasury took substantial steps issuing fewer notes and bonds to try and stabilize the back end of the market. the fed took smaller steps but took more steps again last week. they had a bigger-than-advertised cut in the redemptions qt from 60 billion to 25. they said they were going to do 30 in the minutes. and the treasury is doing larger buybacks and off the run stuff they're still issuing more t-bills. this is still about stabilizing the back end of the market ultimately i think that something will break either in the labor market or in the

financial system that will get them to ease this will not be an easing because they can my expectation that they go three times this year is because they will be forced to. >> that's interesting. what you said about helping the back end of the curve is what he said differently >> we've never had a bigger three-year note option we've had several 58 billions. that is the record size. the biggest issue is the market was tracking around 4.608.

the ultimate yield at this option is 4.605. that means a slightly higher price. this is the first leg. we have two more matures in the form of tens and 30s for a total of 225 billion the long end actually is rallying a bit more aggressive today pushing yields down. hence, of course, we are seeing a reinverting of the yield curve to some extent, but we want to pay close attention to the long matures coming up tomorrow and thursday, because it is the long maturities the fed has a tougher time to control. >> well said how much do you think of the fed's quantitative tightening

backoff or eagerness to cut ra rates? what are the implications? >> it's a complex question i start with the proposition that the yield curve is a forward curve on monetary policy, a forward curve on the fed funds rate, plus a risk premium. so an inverted yield curve says to me the marketplace is saying the fed is restrictive and in the fullness of time they will be reducing the front end. put differently, that we will reslope the yield curve seems to me a credible interpretation of the yield curve. and i really don't have to get into quantitative tightening to come to that conclusion. the market says restrictive.

the fed says restrictive the fed says they will be dialing back restrictions. the marketplace is pricing that in so it all makes sense to me. but where my ax to grind is, is that the inverted yield curve itself turbo charges any given level of restriction on the policy rate, because it is effectively a tax on the banking system, or put differently, a tax on maturity transformation, the old fashioned banking business of borrowing short and lending long i think the fed is restrictive not just because of the level of the policy rate, but because the fed and the market anticipate dialing back that restriction, and you've got an inverted curve. i think the inverted curve is effectively an instrument of restraint. >> do you think it's weird that they're still anticipating an

economic slowdown when we've been waiting for a couple of years at this point and still jobless claims are at 201,000? >> i think the market is anticipating a slowdown, but not a precipitous slowdown i think the inverted curve, the tightness in credit conditions for main street business, not for wall street is going to grind down on this economy and monetary policy will prove to be too restrictive where it is. so, yes, i think we will see a slowdown, but i don't think we will see something precipitous wall street has a tendency to want to go from too hot to too cold and effectively very rapid-fire pivots, not just rhetorically, but in implementation i don't think that's going to happen i think the fed could ease very

meaningfully if they get hit by large, unexpected weakness in the labor market chair powell has said that but the operative word is unexpected based upon where we are right now, the easing to come will be in many respects declaring victory on the restraint of the current policy rate at 5 3/8. >> taking a little bit of issue with what stan said, i want to compliment what he's doing, which is on the extent to which the current rate is or is not restrictive and the right role of forward guidance given that current rate kelly, while you were gone, the new religious test is not your belief in god or not it's your belief in the current rate and whether it is restrictive or not when you listen to fed

officials, do you believe the current rate is sufficient to bring down inflation to get to target i have looked at long run projections and a history of the real rate. it is very difficult for me to say anything but the current rate is historically restrictive. in fact, you have to go back to 1980 to find a more restrictive rate therefore, we don't have anywhere near the inproflation problem they had in 1980 stan layers in this notion of forward guidance can the fed do that without causing the market to go crazy >> i guess i would just leave with this puzzling thought, which is, why are we all still talking about cuts when it seems

like we should be talking about an economy that's humming along? it seems like we're talking about one thing and experiencing another. >> what troubles me about all of this -- when i studied economics in the early '80s, i can't imagine 7% budget deficits the unspoken dynamic is when you raise demand through government spending -- and it's not over. we still have unspent arpa money, the infrastructure bill, the renewables, chips, all this stuff increasing aggregate demand,s that is the inflationary impulse here. so i don't see them getting to two unless and until the fiscal policy tightens or they tighten

it up to offset fiscal policy. >> i'll wait to see if you pivot on the rate cut call until then, i appreciate your time, everybody. coming up, disney is by far the worst name in the dow after disappointing results. and we'll look at hollywood with brian grazer plus, apple unveiling its first ipad models in a year and a half today's announcements are just the appetizer for next year's big developers conference. as we head to break, here's another check on markets apple is up a third of a percent today. the russell 2000 is up .07 we're back after this.

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welcome back disney having its worst day in a year and a half, down about 10% this morning they missed on revenue for a fourth straight quarter, their longest streak in over six years. streaming nearly broke even, losing just $18 million versus nearly 700 million a year ago. if you strip out espn plus,

disney plus and hulu actually made about $57 million st bernstein is warning investors not to let the optimism overshadow disney's parks performance as they say, quote, it is still the anchor of the company's valuation. my next guest is one of the producers behind blockbusters like "a beautiful mind," "splash" anjust to name a few brian grazer is executive chairman of imagine entertainment. great to see you welcome. what's the vibe out there? >> the vibe here in the room, people are live, the event is live at this moment the vibe is very positive. >> why is it positive when everyone out here is asking whatever happened to making good movies give us something to get excited about.

>> look, most recently oppenheimer and barbie were good movies that inside of the story itself were good values. they reached your heart, they leeche reached your mind. that's what movies are supposed to do. premium content, television shows all have good values that are the basic glue or heartbeat of the movie itself. it has to have a soul. with a soul, something has a chance i always believed in premium content even though technology has continued to change the way things are distributed or marketed, for that matter. i remember how scared everybody was about streaming at one time. now all of a sudden everybody's embraced streaming so libraries that have premium content like mine and many others have increased value as

opposed to decreased value because of streaming. >> i totally agree you're right there were a couple of great movies lately, but there's been so few that it makes your content look better and better with each passing year who's paying the most? and i guess give us a lens for investors into who seems the most comfortable, who seems the most desperate >> oh my god, they would kill me if i did that last question. the first part of the question would be, who pays the most? i wouldn't judge it only by who pays the most. you want to look at it in two columns. one is who pays the most, and the other is where is the widest reach for enabling you to have the greatest impact on the culture if your movie or television works who pays the most could be

netflix. they could pay the most. look, the artists want to own the ip, meaning the story or the book or the treatment that is the underlying value ingredient to the content itself. if you own that, then you can barter it against all the other platforms. with luck, you can optimize both of those verticals the most amount of money and the most amount of reach currently, netflix is in a very good spot, and they have been for quite a long time, because they can do both but there are other companies like universal or disney for example. they really try to hit the bullseye with great content. they often do that and succeed

at that. >> i'm curious you were part of a panel out there talking about the future of media with ai and the rest of it what are you thinking about for the next couple of years i think we're pretty close to this now that i can get on and create my own animated video and things like that, how is that going to change the economics for your business >> well, if i hear that correctly, how will what we currently make, how will that change the economics for the business first of all, you have to make premium content. premium content always has a market for it, either in its current release or in its after life many of the movies or televisions i made weren't ones you would know of top of mind, because they, again, had a soul. they were high-quality movies or television they're now becoming more

popular than ever. "friday night lights" was a movie where they lost the game, relatively successful film, very successful series. and now between the original creators of the movie and television show, the three of us are doing the series again, because people have a memory of that being high quality and good . they liked that it was escapism and that it was about empowerment. in my career, the movie that changed my entire life was "e.t." in 1982, because that movie got people to elevate their spirits to another place you were awe-struck by it along with "star wars. >> brian, thanks for making the time today we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me on

still ahead, if you're on the fence about investing in china, we'll talk about that after the break.

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i will never invest in china as long as the current leader is there. there are so many exciting things going on in the united states and argentina and japan why in the world would i ever want to put money in china >> that was stanley druckenmiller. the u.s. isn't the only place outperforming china during that period the europe etf is at its highest level since 2008 the ewu at its highest level in six years. even vanguard's europe etf trading at a two-year high so plenty of places for investors to find opportunity outside of china these days.

let's get to the news update. >> the trump hush-money trial now on a lunch break when court resumes, stormy daniels will be back on the stand. the adult film actress testified earlier that many were interested in buying her story after the "access hollywood" tape was released. and while she was focused on selling her story, she said she was not motivated by money and just wanted to get it out publicly a landmark cancer study is launching today, aiming to be the largest ever to study black women and the disease. the american cancer society plans to enroll more than 100,000 black women and follow them for 30 years to see how medical history, lifestyle and experiences of racism may affect the risk of developing and dying from cancer. panera says it is phasing

out its charged lemonade nationwide it comes after the beverage was blamed in lawsuits for at least two deaths claiming the charged lemonade contained more caffeine than was advertised. coming up, apple hanging onto last week's gains after its earnings beat a record buyback is apple at risk of falling even more behind in the arai ce we'll debate that coming up. (♪♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward.

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welcome back apple unveiling new ipads at a virtual event today a little more than a month before the company's annual world wide developers conference if it was that big of a deal, why did they do it at 10:00 a.m. local time >> let's talk about what they

announced. apple updating their ipads for the first time since october 2022 sales have fallen for five out of the last six quarters turns out it's hard for apple to push new ipads when they stopped making new ipads the big news out of today is the ipad pro, getting apple's latest and greater computer chip called the m4 also updates to the ipad air, which now comes in a bigger size and has an upgraded chip as well, plus a new apple pencil and a very expensive keyboard case with the pro. today's event had silly examples saying it will help you scan documents better or edit video

better we're expecting the real announcement on june 10th at the world wide developers conference >> i'd like to know what portion of the install user base is four years old. congrats to them they're getting a fancy new ipad there are concerns the tech giant is falling behind on innovation we'll start talking a little bit about how big a deal ipads really are these days for apple. >> the sales are falling because apple hasn't articulated a compelling use case for the ipad in a long time to me, the biggest news is they got rid of the cheapest 10-inch ipad with the headphone jack

that's the story today, to me. it got more inconvenient for parents. you need to update ipad os that's coming next month you can say the chip is fast, but until the software lets you do more or different things with it, it's going to be hard to market these devices. >> i think apple is going to face more and more public scrutiny over usage of the phones, over usage of the ipads, how much is children's, how much is teens'. does their reluctance to deal with the ipad category is there's not much demand for it outside of young adults and kids >> i think part of the ipad is this bundling idea, that once you have the iphone, they want

to be able to buy the watch or the home pod or this device. they want to lock you in so all of that helps the bundle value and the lifetime value of the customer maybe you want the watch, but i want the tablet for my kid or i want the tablet to watch movies on the go. i think anything that gets you into a second or third device in addition to the iphone lowers churn, which helps lifetime value. >> that's a great way to put it. this is kind of the appetizer for the big event not because they're related per se, but they want to get this out before they can tackle what in a couple of weeks? >> tim cook said they're going to break new ground in artificial intelligence. to me, that means something new, something novel and something we haven't seen before not just in apple devices but period

there was one other generative ai tucked into this ipad announcement they announced a new update to the software called logic. it's what professionals use to edit sound they did add generative ai for some beats and music in the background you can tell it to make drum beats and it will automatically do it. >> this is for peoplecreating music? >> people like you and me would never use this, but a very niche audience would want to use it for music creation i talked to tim cook about this last week. when they're talking about the chip, he told me we've been doing these neuro processi iuni for four years, laying the groundwork for artificial intelligence on their devices for at least four years now.

there is a good chance they're going to start leveraging that in a more significant way next month. >> does that excite you, what may might be up to with their chips and pushing the envelope on ai. >> that's the promise. i think for the ipad in particular where the application model is locked down, they have to let developers go and use this power in novel ways i think stuff like pulling apart logic or faster editing and final cut, those are hints what you might be able to do, but i think the operating system needs to get closer to the mac where the excitement is, they're being deployed on the web. they're not really being run locally. apple has to make that move and

get developers to deploy applications on the ipad, on the mac run locally. we haven't seen the pitch for that yet i'm cautious, but optimistic we haven't seen the pitch to get chatgpt running locally on the iphone yet. >> their announcement about the buyback makes you wonder how excited they are about opportunities right now, the biggest buyback ever announced. >> i think this is really problematic. at a time when moffiicrosoft ise going up and then to have apple say no increase in capital and we're going to take $100 billion and repurchase shares. all of that makes you feel like they aren't aware of the world that's about to disrupt every business in america, and they're

doing a great job of that mobile ecosystem which they were the primary beneficiary of ten years ago. it's like they can't take their eyes off that ball wall street is moving onto the generative ai. they have this installed base of 2 billion people that are really loyal, but they are being really slow we'll see what they announce the stock isn't moving today even though they talked more about ai than they did on the entire earnings call today wall street is not impressed. we'll see at wwdc. >> there's not a lot of buzz around the headset and the car, they might be doing a partnership with rivian. this feels like an afterthought.

>> project titan is no more. they threw in the towel. this rivan headline, i'm skeptical for a number of reasons. the outlet it's coming from typically gets apple things wrong. assume they're right, what's more likely is rivan doesn't have car play. that's really all apple has to offer them right now i wouldn't expect a rivan robotaxi it seems like they're over that right now. >> disney with a 10% drop in the stock this morning what ails it >> really good numbers for the second quarter they just announced. the guidance for the third quarter abysmal, mostly on parks and losses

a 5$500 million loss which is going to take their streamers straight into the red again. we think the stock move is overdone guidance was weak for q3 >> it's an uphill climb in the streaming business thank you all. still to come, peloton shares are spiking on a cnbc report that private equity is showing some interest in buying the beleaguered fitness company. they ignored your potential, dissed your achievements, and mocked your ambition. but it's not the critic who counts, and you know that. from the beginning, you couldn't be stopped. ♪♪ breaking resistance with every swing and block. ♪♪ your game plan never changed.

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welcome back to "the exchange." market holding onto slight duadu gains. peloton up 60 cents after sources say private equity is

circling the company for a potential buyout some discussions have reportedly centered on how to cut operating expenses to make a deal more attractive last week shares plunged after a loss of 15% workforce reduction and the exit of ceo barry mccarthy after two years at the helm he was originally tapped for his experience managing subscription business models. fast forward to today, peloton has posted 13 straight quarters of losses. shares are still down 97% from their all-time closing high back in january 2021. for the latest head over to cnbc.com coming up, shares of reddit up more than 40% since their march debut. near-term options in play, 15% move one way or the other. we'll get the action, the story and the trade ahead of those results, next.

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rides, rooms and recent ipos are all set to report. we have the action, the story and the trade on uber versus lyft, reddit and wynn resorts versus choice hotels here to do the trades, kkm financials founder and cnbc contributor. i don't know if i remember how to do this, jeff you have to help me out. welcome. >> we got this, kelly. great to be seen great to see you >> let's start out with ride share. stocks on a big divergence still since 2022 jeffries expects uber to keep winning. instacart announced a partnership with uber eats just today ahead of its earnings after the bell tomorrow. do you stick with the winner or bet on the little guy, jeff? >> no, you stick with the winner i agree with jeffries. uber beaten the brakes off of lift market cap, look at the size of uber, 20 times the size of lyft.

let's go back old school, kelly. let's look at profitability. uber makes money lyft has not made money yet. it's an easy pick to stick with the winner i like sticking with uber. overall, it's not that expensive, too. >> all right let's move on. reddit, astaire labs not a lot else connecting the internet forum and the ai infrastructure company the investors are looking at guidance and competition to see if these big excitement waves are merited. we were just talking about winners. do you consider them winners here, jeff >> i don't consider reddit a winner i fully don't understand and i talked about this on "the exchange" the ipo. i know it went up to $65 with all the enthusiasm, anything ai does get some euphoria into it but when you look at what reddit is, it's an aggregation of news. switching gears, apples to oranges, astera is ai related.

that's the investing theme for now two years. think of the vehicle, the car, all these different platform which is need artificial intelligence you think of the engine, nvidia, amd, intel the chips asteria labs are the tires the rubber to the road connectivity parts they make, that's going to allow all the horsepower coming out of the new super, duper chips they're producing and allow it to be connectivity i want to stick with astera. technically more room to run here and that's where i will put my money versus reddit which i don't understand. >> i use reddit all the time i find out things like -- >> i think it's a great news source i don't want to put it in the same bucket. >> i see ai supplanting it hey, wisdom of the crowd, how do i use scott's four step fertilizer. >> maybe i need to educate myself. >> now i can ask ai maybe their answer is nearly as good

any way, the ceo of reddit will be on with cramer tonight. i'll look forward to that. he'll talk to jim "mad money" 6:00 p.m we'll move on to the hospitality names. wynn and choice. both up around 8%. revenues expected to reflect different segments of the consumer which do you pick? >> my choice will be choice, there we go. first pun back for you, kelly. going back to covid, we haven't seen wynn recover. going out five years, it's been a tough recovery why is that? wynn's exposure to china 70% of the their revenue is exposed to china as we continue to see opaque readings out of china, i just can't put my money there choice is interesting. those are 650,000 rooms across the country, more of the comfort inn, more of middle america. when we see inflation continue to be a situation moving into q2, q3, i have a better reading

versus the high-end luxury hotel or casino in china >> real quickly, the he think seng off a ten day win streak. >> he's one of the best traders of all time. i'll give him a hat tip. he brings up a great point if you are going to trim your position, think of the etfs that own nvidia, 484 etfs that own nvidia all those etfs or people who own the etfs, trim by 25% or trim all their exposure, you're going to see a significant move lower. i have some apprehension in the overbought ai themes but the ai theme itself would be healthy for some type of reset because that's not going away any time soon, kelly. >> jeff, you're the best thanks so much we appreciate it >> jeff killburg, kkm.

"power lunch" is next. tyler is getting ready i'll see you on the other side of this break.

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♪ welcome to "power lunch. and why am i smiling because i'm alongside kelly evans. welcome back. >> great to be back. >> it's just like riding a bicycle. nothing to worry about it. >> i can do it. coming up, huge stories in the tech space tons of apple headlines. washingtonti